One year after İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was jailed, Turkey’s main opposition is entering a new phase of uncertainty as the politician widely seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strongest challenger goes on trial in a mass corruption case, Agence France-Presse reported.
The first hearing is scheduled for Monday at the Silivri courthouse on the western outskirts of İstanbul. Prosecutors are seeking a total of 2,430 years in prison for İmamoğlu, accusing him of leading a criminal network tied to alleged corruption in the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality.
İmamoğlu, 54, was arrested in March 2025 on the same day the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) formally named him as its presidential candidate, in a move critics said was aimed at removing him from politics before the next election.
Analysts say the case makes it even less likely that İmamoğlu will be able to run in the next presidential race. Even if he is acquitted in the corruption trial, he also faces a separate legal threat over the validity of his university diploma, which is required under Turkey’s constitution for presidential candidates.
“İmamoğlu’s chances of coming back to politics before a presidential election are zero,” Halil Karaveli, a senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, told Agence France-Presse.
“Even in the very unlikely case he would be acquitted in this trial, you still have the problem that his university diploma could be revoked, which of course disqualifies him,” he said.
İmamoğlu’s detention marked a turning point in a broader crackdown on the CHP that intensified after the party defeated Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the March 2024 local elections and retained control of major cities including İstanbul and Ankara.
Since then, a number of CHP mayors and municipal officials have faced investigations, arrests and prison sentences. According to the report, 15 CHP mayors are now behind bars.
Senior CHP official Burhanettin Bulut said the government had responded to the opposition’s local election victory by using the courts to weaken elected officials.
“Many of our municipalities have been subjected to unlawful political operations, and our elected mayors and colleagues have been imprisoned, disregarding the will of the people,” Bulut told AFP.
He said the March 9 hearing involving İmamoğlu and 407 other defendants would be a major test for Turkey’s democracy and judicial system.
“For us, this is not just about defending a mayor, but about upholding the voters’ will and protecting the rule of law,” Bulut said.
The CHP plans to set up a tent outside the Silivri courthouse in a show of solidarity during the opening of the trial. The courthouse is situated next to the prison complex where İmamoğlu has been held for nearly a year.
Human Rights Watch has described the prosecution as politically motivated. In a statement Benjamin Ward, the group’s deputy Europe and Central Asia director, said the case raised serious concerns about judicial independence and due process.
“The trial of Mayor İmamoğlu follows more than a year of weaponizing the criminal justice system against his party and other CHP elected officials while he sits in jail,” Ward said.
“It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that prosecutors are trying to remove İmamoğlu from politics and discredit his party in ways that undermine democracy.”
The CHP has continued to publicly back İmamoğlu as its candidate, but party officials have also signaled that they would rally behind another name if legal barriers make his candidacy impossible.
Bulut said the party would act with unity if circumstances forced it to choose someone else.
“Should any legal or political obstacles arise, we will act with a common mind, embracing the broadest segments of society and determining the name that will garner the strongest support from the nation,” he said.
Political observers say CHP Chairman Özgür Özel would be the likely alternative if İmamoğlu is barred from running.
Karaveli said Özel had emerged as a stronger public figure over the past year and could become the party’s natural choice in that scenario.
The most widely discussed political scenario in Ankara is an early election in the fall of 2027, which could open a path for Erdoğan to seek another term.
